LAS VEGAS (AP) — With the notable exception of Friday night’s Alabama-Oklahoma showdown, bettors aren’t exactly rushing to place wagers on the opening week of this season’s College Football Playoff.
The presence of two Group of Five representatives — 11th-seeded Tulane and 12th-seed James Madison — in matchups in which they are considerable underdogs has taken a lot of the luster off the first round.
Sixth-seeded Mississippi is favored by 17 1/2 points at BetMGM Sportsbook over Tulane, and No. 5 Oregon is a 20 1/2-point favorite over James Madison.
“It’s not as hyped up and exciting as it has been in years prior,” said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook. “But I’m sure when we get to the next round, it will be exciting and we’ll garner a lot of handle there.”
The New Year’s Eve and Day quarterfinals could have a number of intriguing matchups, but there is a real possibility this weekend will end with a couple of blowouts.
“We’re still waiting for a bulk of the action to come through,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said.
Crimson Tide-Sooners nearly a tossup
The most anticipated matchup this week is eighth-seeded Oklahoma’s home game against No. 9 seed Alabama. The betting line has bounced back and forth between which team is the favorite.
The Sooners were favored by 1 1/2 points at BetMGM as of Thursday afternoon in their third meeting in 13 months. Oklahoma won the first two games and will be at home for this matchup.
CBS SportsLine handicapper Bruce Marshall noted both offenses have major question marks. Bama’s running game has not fared great against top competition and had minus-3 yards in the Southeastern Conference title game loss to Georgia. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has struggled to find a rhythm since returning from injury.
“The rematch thing kind of makes you like Alabama a little bit here, but I don’t know they look like they’re a threat to go any deeper than this round,” Marshall said. “They might get by this one, but they’re going to have to play a lot better than they have in the last month, certainly a lot better than they did against Georgia. That effort didn’t make any sense. There was no reason for them to be as flat as they were in that game.”
Buckeyes still the team to beat
Second-seeded Ohio State might have lost the Big Ten title game to Indiana, ceding the top seed to the Hoosiers, but the odds still favor the Buckeyes.
BetMGM lists the Buckeyes at +225 to win the national championship; Indiana is right behind at +275. Third-seeded Georgia is the next closest at +500.
Bettors have seen this movie. Ohio State went into last season’s playoffs off a confounding loss to Michigan, but then rolled through the postseason to win the national championship. Each victory was by double digits.
“Ohio State is the No. 1 most-bet team by a wide margin, but their price has been so short all year,” Magee said. “My prediction is Ohio State over Indiana. You saw it last year Ohio State losing to Michigan, they lose to Indiana this year, but you see what this team is capable of come playoff time.”
Ole Miss a mystery without Kiffin
Lane Kiffin wanted to remain Ole Miss’ coach in the playoff after taking the LSU job, but was told his services were no longer required in Oxford.
What that means to the Rebels’ fortunes is tough to know. They were considered borderline national championship contenders under Kiffin, but other than an expected victory in the first round, how far the Rebels go is far from certain. They are listed at 25-1 at BetMGM to win the title — behind eight other teams.
Marshall said quarterback Trinidad Chambliss’ growth under Kiffin could be difficult to duplicate.
“Kiffin was so involved in the mechanics of that and the play calling, (his absence) might actually hurt Ole Miss a bit,” Marshall said. “It could work both ways. They could really galvanize and circle the wagons around (coach Pete) Golding, but I think the specifics without Kiffin the play caller could hurt Chambliss a little bit.”
Rest vs. rust
All four schools with a first-round bye lost in the quarterfinals last season when the CFP went to a 12-team format for the first time.
The major downside of getting the bye is waiting about three weeks to take the field for a game and maybe not being as sharp.
Feazel, however, didn’t buy that theory.
“That’s referring to a one-year trend,” Feazel said. “We’re talking about (only) four games where that happened last year. … I think it still is an advantage to get a bye, especially just the time to prepare depending on the coach.”
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