Something to watch in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals will be how sharp the teams that got first-round byes are early in their games.
No. 2 seed Ohio State will have had 24 days between games and No. 1 Indiana, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech each will have had 25-day layoffs.
Last year was the first with a 12-team field, and the quarterfinals were nothing short of a disaster for the top four seeds, with extended time off the common denominator: No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Boise State and No. 4 Arizona State all lost and were outscored by a total of 81-13 in the first halves. They had 14 punts, three turnovers on downs, three fumbles, two missed field goals, two field goals and two touchdowns on their first combined 26 drives.
No team struggled more than Oregon, which was unbeaten before its 41-21 loss to eventual national champion Ohio State at the Rose Bowl. The Ducks were down 34-0 in the second quarter, punting on five of their first six possessions (including four 3-and-outs) and turning the ball over on downs on the other.
The picks, with seedings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:
No. 10 seed Miami (plus 9 1/2) vs. No. 2 seed Ohio State
This game sets up as a showdown between two top-10 defenses at the Cotton Bowl. Ohio State scored just 10 points in its loss to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game and Miami managed just 10 in its CFP first-round win over Texas A&M.
With points at a premium, the Buckeyes will need to do a better job in the red zone. They’ve come away with touchdowns on just two of their last seven trips inside the 20-yard line. Julian Sayin also must get the ball out quickly against a front seven that sacked the Aggies’ Marcel Reed seven times. The Buckeyes’ offensive line had allowed just six sacks through 12 games before allowing five against Indiana.
Miami, which will be going against a defense allowing 213 yards and 8.2 points per game to lead the nation, needs another big game from RB Mark Fletcher and continue to find creative ways to get do-it-all freshman star Malachi Toney involved.
Pick: Ohio State 17-10.
No. 5 seed Oregon vs. No. 4 seed Texas Tech (plus 2 1/2)
Oregon seemed to lose interest after getting out to a 34-6 lead in a 51-34 first-round win over James Madison, and Dan Lanning and his staff were beside themselves. The Ducks should have no problem staying focused in the Orange Bowl.
Texas Tech will be their biggest challenge since Indiana went into Eugene and left with a 10-point win in October. Oregon’s Dante Moore could be the first quarterback taken in the NFL draft, and he will have ample opportunity to showcase his skills against a defense that has two AP first-team All-Americans in David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez, a second-teamer in A.J. Holmes and a third-teamer in Lee Hunter.
The Red Raiders need to keep injury-prone QB Behren Morton upright and, like Ohio State, they need to get touchdowns instead of field goals when they get inside the red zone.
Pick: Texas Tech 27-24.
No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana (minus 7)
It’s the SEC vs. the Big Ten and the first Alabama-Indiana meeting ever. Old money vs. new money.
The Hoosiers’ rise under Curt Cignetti is the best storyline in college football in a long time, and the idyllic Rose Bowl setting would be just the place for it to continue with Fernando Mendoza playing his first game since winning the Heisman Trophy.
Alabama is more than capable of spoiling everything, but it can’t afford another start like it had against Oklahoma. The Crimson Tide trailed 17-0 and was out-yarded 118-12 in the first quarter before matching the largest comeback in CFP history and winning 34-24.
Indiana’s players took notice of the Tide’s perseverance and warned no lead would be safe. Cignetti will have his team playing with the pedal to the metal.
Pick: Indiana 28-17.
No. 6 Mississippi vs. No. 3 Georgia (minus 6 1/2)
Mississippi beat Tulane 41-10 in the first round for Pete Golding’s initial victory as successor to Lane Kiffin, and now the competition ramps up at the Sugar Bowl.
The Bulldogs won the regular-season meeting 43-35 at home, part of their current nine-game winning streak and Mississippi’s only loss. Gunner Stockton’s two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter wiped out a 35-26 deficit; Trinidad Chambliss was just 1-of-10 passing for 1 yard over the final 15 minutes.
The Rebels will need a more even performance from Chambliss, who was terrific against Tulane, and they have to hope RB Kewan Lacy comes back after hurting a shoulder against the Green Wave.
Georgia played its best late in the season, and it will be interesting to see how much, if any, the layoff affects the Bulldogs.
Pick: Georgia 31-21.
AP predictions scorecard
First-round CFP games: Straight-up — 2-2; Against spread — 0-4.
Season straight up — 194-61; Against spread — 123-131-1.
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