Miami plays Indiana in the College Football Playoff championship game on Monday night, with BetMGM Sportsbook listing Indiana as an 8.5-point favorite as the weekend arrived.
Will it be a blowout?
The top-seeded Hoosiers (15-0) have beaten Alabama (38-3) and Oregon (56-22) in the CFP as they pursue the program’s first championship. That’s a winning margin of 34.5 points.
The 10th-seeded Hurricanes (13-2) have beaten Texas A&M (10-3), Ohio State (24-14) and Mississippi (31-27) on their way to the title game, where they will play for their sixth national championship since the poll era began in 1936. That’s a winning margin of 7 points, but the point is that the ‘Canes are used to tighter games of late and maybe that will serve them well.
How Miami can win
Carson Beck must keep doing what he is doing. His passing numbers the last three games don’t jump off the page, but he is 18 of 26 on third downs with 15 conversions, according to Sportradar, and he led the late 15-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to beat Ole Miss in the semifinals.
The ‘Canes need Mark Fletcher Jr. to dent an Indiana defense that’s given up just 2.7 yards per carry in two playoff games and has allowed fewer than 100 yards rushing in 13 of 15 games. Fletcher has been at his best lately, averaging 6.8 yards per carry and averaging better than 130 yards per game in the CFP.
Miami can’t win without getting pressure on Fernando Mendoza. The ‘Canes lead the nation in sacks, and they recorded a combined 12 against Texas A&M and Ohio State before getting to Trinidad Chambliss just once in the semifinal. Mendoza can extend plays, but he’s not the scrambler Chambliss is.
The ‘Canes also have to play a clean game. They committed 10 penalties against Ole Miss, including three false starts, a roughing the passer, targeting, personal foul and pass interference.
How Indiana can win
It starts with Mendoza, naturally. The Heisman Trophy winner threw eight touchdown passes and no interceptions against Alabama and Oregon, but now he faces the nation’s most ferocious pass rush. His sack rate of 6% is on par with the Bowl Subdivision average, but in some games he has had a tendency to take them in bunches. This can’t be one of those games.
Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black are a terrific 1-2 punch at running back and can take some of the heat off Mendoza if there’s room to roam. Top receivers Omar Cooper Jr., Elijah Sarratt and Charlie Becker will go against a Miami secondary that will be short-handed for the first half because of Xavier Lucas’s targeting ejection against Ole Miss.
The defense must keep Fletcher under control, get creative with blitzes against one of the nation’s best offensive lines and make sure to contain flashy freshman Malachi Toney when he gets the ball in the open field.
The pick
Both teams are riding storybook runs. Indiana was still the officially the worst team in Bowl Subdivision history in terms of overall losses just a couple of months ago. Miami, the brash bully fallen on lean times, can return to the top in its home stadium.
This story has a crimson-and-cream ending: INDIANA wins, 31-21.
AP predictions scorecard
CFP semifinals — Straight-up — 1-1; Against spread — 1-1.
Season: Straight-up — 196-65 (75.1%); Against spread — 126-134-1 (48.3%).
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