The Kansas City Chiefs are scoring more points than at this point last season, allowing fewer, and have improved their turnover margin.
Those are usually ingredients for success, but that’s not the case for the three-time defending AFC champions, who have four fewer wins compared with this point last season and currently are outside of playoff position.
How has that happened?
It’s as simple as looking at how they’ve fared in close games. Kansas City is 0-5 in games decided by eight points or fewer after coming into the season on an NFL-record 17-game winning streak in those situations.
Nothing illustrates the difference more than comparing the first game against Denver in each of the last two seasons. The Chiefs escaped at home with a 16-14 win in Week 10 last season when Wil Lutz’s last-second 35-yard field goal was blocked. Lutz hit a kick from the same distance at home on Sunday for a 22-19 win and a 4 1/2-game advantage in the AFC West over Kansas City.
The Chiefs went 11-0 in one-possession games on the way to a 15-2 record last season, also winning nail-biters thanks to a botched snap by the Raiders, walk-off field goals to beat Carolina and the Chargers, an overtime win over Tampa Bay, a key pass interference call against Cincinnati and a toe on the end line that prevented a possible tying touchdown by Baltimore.
The Broncos have been on the opposite side of the equation, going 7-2 in games decided by eight points or fewer this season, with six of those close wins coming during their current eight-game winning streak that has them at the top of the AFC standings with a 9-2 record. Denver made the playoffs last season despite a 1-6 record in one-possession games.
The Broncos aren’t alone in having success in close games, with two other surprising first-place teams also doing it. AFC East-leading New England (9-2) is 5-2 in one-possession games, while the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears (7-3) are 5-1.
Chicago has been outscored by six points and is the fifth team in the Super Bowl era to start a season 7-3 or better while being outscored, with the others being Minnesota in 2022, Cleveland in 2020 and Denver in 1979 and 1992. Only the Browns won a playoff game, beating Pittsburgh in the wild-card round.
Special teams plays big impact
From the record-tying five walk-off field goals, several missed kicks and the most long kick returns in any week in a decade, special teams played a major role in Week 11.
Carolina, Chicago, Denver, Houston and Miami all won on field goals on the final play on Sunday, marking just the second time in NFL history there were five walk-off field goals on a single day, with it also happening on Nov. 12, 2023.
It wasn’t all positive, as Jason Myers missed a potential game-winning 61-yard field goal on the final play of Seattle’s 21-19 loss to the Rams, and there were eight missed extra points for the most in any week since there were nine in Week 10 of the 2022 season.
Both San Francisco’s Eddy Pineiro and Green Bay’s Lucas Havrisik missed two PATs, although both of those teams ended up winning.
Kickoff returns also played a big part in the results Sunday, with the new kickoff rule contributing to seven returns of at least 40 yards, tied for the most in any week since there were nine in Week 13 of the 2015 season.
Some of those returns played big roles, with perhaps none as big as Devin Duvernay’s 56-yard return for Chicago after Minnesota had taken the lead with 50 seconds left. The Bears ran the ball three times and beat the Vikings 19-17 on Cairo Santos’ 48-yard kick on the final play.
Skyy Moore had the longest return of the day, with his 98-yarder on the opening kick setting up a 1-yard TD drive that set the tone for San Francisco in a 41-22 win over Arizona.
Buffalo had four returns of at least 40 yards — including three by Ray Davis — setting up two scores in a 44-32 win against Tampa Bay.
Fourth-down follies
Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions kept trying fourth downs and failing.
The Lions went 0 for 5 on fourth downs in a 16-9 loss to Philadelphia, with all of the attempts coming before the start of the fourth quarter. No other team had been stopped on five fourth-down tries before the start of the fourth quarter in any game as far as records at Sportradar go back to 1991.
Detroit didn’t attempt a fourth down in the fourth quarter and became the third team since 1991 to go 0 for 5 or worse on fourth-down tries in a game. New England did it on Oct. 8, 1995, against Denver, and Campbell’s Lions went 0 for 6 against New England on Oct. 9, 2022.
The aggressiveness cost the Lions a chance at two possible field goals, as well as field position. But Detroit has had great success on fourth downs overall under Campbell, with a league-high 97 conversions since he was hired in 2021 and a 55.7% conversion rate even after the 0-fer on Sunday.
The most debated fourth-down decision might have come in Miami’s 16-13 win over Washington in Madrid. With the game tied with 1:44 to play, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel opted to go for it on fourth down from the 1 when a field goal would have given his team the lead.
Only one other team since 2000 had attempted a fourth down from the 1 in the final 2 minutes of a tied game, with Cincinnati doing it in Week 17 of the 2021 season against Kansas City. The Chiefs committed a penalty on the play and the Bengals ran out the clock before kicking a winning field goal.
The situation didn’t work out as well for Miami as Ollie Gordon was hit for a 2-yard loss, giving Washington the opportunity to drive for a winning field goal.
But part of the strategy behind the decision was knowing that the Commanders would have to start the drive near their own goal line with no timeouts. That proved important as Washington drove only as far as the Miami 38 and Matt Gay missed a 56-yard field goal that might very well have been a shorter attempt if the Dolphins had kicked their own field goal and given the Commanders the ball on a kickoff.
Miami ended up winning in overtime.
Superstars shine
Two of the game’s biggest stars delivered some signature performances on Sunday.
Buffalo’s Josh Allen threw three touchdown passes and ran for three more TDs, duplicating a feat he had done just last season in Week 14 against the Los Angeles Rams.
But it’s a truly rare accomplishment, with only other player in NFL history pulling it off more than 70 years ago. Hall of Famer Otto Graham has the only other game with three TD passes and three TD runs, doing it in Cleveland’s 1954 NFL title game win over Detroit.
Myles Garrett pulled off an impressive feat of his own that was only slightly less rare. Garrett had four sacks in Cleveland’s loss to Baltimore, after getting five in a game last month against New England. Garrett also had a 4 1/2-sack game against Chicago in 2021, becoming the fifth player with at least three four-sack games since sacks became official in 1982.
Derrick Thomas and Leslie O’Neal each did it four times, while Reggie White and Chandler Jones did it three apiece.
Garrett’s 15 sacks are tied for the second most through 10 games, trailing Mark Gastineau’s 17 1/2 in 1984. He needs eight in the final seven games to break the single-season record of 22 1/2 held by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt.
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