The Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills faced similar decisions after another promising season ended short of the Super Bowl.
The Packers opted to give coach Matt LaFleur a contract extension in hopes that he can still get the team over the hump, while the Bills fired coach Sean McDermott following an unprecedented sixth straight season that featured a playoff win and no Super Bowl appearance.
LaFleur and McDermott were two of the four coaches in the league with at least seven seasons at their current spots and no Super Bowl titles with Kyle Shanahan having just finished his ninth season with San Francisco and Zac Taylor his seventh in Cincinnati. Andy Reid is the longest tenured coached having won three Super Bowl titles in 13 seasons in Kansas City.
The four long-term coaches without a title had success, combining for 25 playoff wins and 21 postseason appearances without winning it all. Shanahan lost twice in the Super Bowl in the 2019 and ’23 seasons, while Taylor fell short in 2021 with the Bengals.
Whether Shanahan, LaFleur or Taylor will break through and win it all at their current spots remains unknown, history shows that’s much less certain.
Only one coach hired since the start of the Super Bowl era in 1966 won his first championship with a team later than his eighth season with Bill Cowher winning it all for Pittsburgh after the end of his 14th season in 2005.
There have been 36 coaches to win a Super Bowl with Vince Lombardi, Weeb Ewbank, Hank Stram and Tom Landry all having already been on the job before the first Super Bowl was played.
Of the other 32 winners, exactly half won their first title within their first three seasons with a team, while 12 others did it in the fourth or fifth season. The only ones besides to Cowher to take longer than five years were Pittsburgh’s Chuck Noll (year six), Reid (year seven) and the Raiders’ John Madden (year eight).
There were more than 60 other coaches who had at least six seasons with a team who didn’t win it all.
McDermott’s eight playoff wins are the most for any coach in the Super Bowl era who hasn’t made it to the title game and the Bills were the first team to win a playoff game in six straight seasons without reaching a Super Bowl.
Shanahan’s nine playoff wins are the fourth most for a coach who hasn’t won it all.
LaFleur has made the playoffs in six of seven seasons with Green Bay but has just playoff wins to show for it and hasn’t made it past the divisional round since losing his second straight NFC title game in the 2020 season against Tampa Bay.
In all, there have been a record-tying 10 coaching changes this offseason, matching the previous high last reached in 2022. The only other seasons with 10 came in 2006, 1997 and 1978.
Only two of the 10 coaches hired four years ago remain on the job with Kevin O’Connell about to enter his fifth season in Minnesota and Todd Bowles the same in Tampa.
Overtime rules
The change in the playoff overtime rules that went into place when Kansas City knocked out Buffalo in the 2021 divisional round with an opening drive touchdown had a big impact in this season’s divisional round.
With both teams now guaranteed a chance at a possession even if the first team scores a touchdown, the choice of whether to take the ball or kick off in overtime is more complicated.
Shanahan chose getting the ball in the first game under the new rules in Super Bowl 58 and the 49ers lost when they settled for a field goal on the opening drive and Kansas City drove for a game-ending TD — with help of a fourth-down conversion on the drive when the Chiefs knew they needed a score.
There were two overtime games this weekend and both teams that won the toss opted to kick, choosing the advantage of knowing what the first team did on the opening possession.
While that is sound strategy if overtime lasts only two possessions, it is a disadvantage if the game is tied after two possessions. That’s what happened in both games this weekend.
Denver and the Rams both drove for winning field goals on the third possession of overtime when it was sudden death, taking advantage of the extra possession that the team that won the coin toss didn’t get.
Quarterback shuffle
The injury that knocked Denver’s Bo Nix out of the playoffs has created a most unusual situation with Jarrett Stidham set to start the AFC title game after not throwing a single pass during a game the last two seasons.
When Stidham takes the field against New England on Sunday, it will be 749 days since his last pass attempt in the regular season or playoffs in Week 18 of the 2022 season against Las Vegas. According to the NFL research department, that will be more than double the previous longest stretch without a pass attempt by a playoff starter with Joe Webb having gone 370 days before his 2012 wild-card start for Minnesota against Green Bay.
Stidham’s four career starts are the fewest ever for a QB starting in a conference championship game — one fewer than Jeff Hostetler had when he started the 1990 NFC title game for the Giants. Hostetler had four career regular-season starts and had won the divisional round when he started that win over San Francisco.
The Broncos will be the ninth team to start multiple quarterbacks in the same postseason and will try to become the fifth to get wins from both. Buffalo was the last to do it when backup Frank Reich won two games in place of the injured Jim Kelly in the 1992 playoffs before Kelly returned and won the AFC title game. The Bills lost the Super Bowl to Dallas.
The 1972 Dolphins, who finished a perfect 17-0, were the only Super Bowl champions to use two starting quarterbacks in the playoffs with Earl Morrall winning the first two rounds before Bob Griese returned from a broken leg to win the Super Bowl.
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