‘No expectations’: Bangladesh election means little to 1m Rohingya refugees | Bangladesh Election 2026

Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh – On a Thursday afternoon, 19-year-old Mahmudul Hasan prepared seating on the floor of his bamboo-and-tarpaulin home in Balukhali Rohingya Refugee camp.

Minutes later, 35 young children trooped in. Hasan is still in his teens, but he is their teacher. They greeted him in Rakhine language: “Sayar, Nay Kaung Lar? [Sir, how are you?]” The children are among 80 who study at Hasan’s community-run private school, where he teaches them Burmese, English and maths.

But nearby, a Bangladeshi government official on a motorcycle was trying to educate all those who would listen about something else: He was making announcements about the country’s upcoming February 12 elections.

Between February 9 and February 13, the official yelled out on a microphone, people in the refugee camp should keep their shops shut and not venture outside the camp. And he warned them: Anyone found participating in any political campaign would receive “serious punishment” – they could lose their registration card and a separate document that allows refugees access to subsidised rations.

The camps in Cox’s Bazar are home to more than 1 million Rohingya refugees, who were forced to flee Myanmar in 2017 after a brutal military crackdown. At a time when most countries shunned them, Bangladesh – under then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina – gave them shelter. But the election season warnings to them were a reminder of how, at the same time, life in Bangladesh is life in limbo: Limited education, health, rations, livelihood options, and freedom of movement.

As Bangladesh’s 127 million voters prepare to elect their next government, Rohingya refugees like Hasan know that they aren’t real stakeholders.

“I don’t have any new expectations,” Hasan told Al Jazeera. “I deserve to live with dignity and human rights. This life [in Bangladesh] is not my choice.”

Still, he conceded, candidates from the two main political fronts in the election – the alliances led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami – in the Ukhia and Teknaf regions where the Rohingya camps are based, have spoken of the community’s concerns, as have national leaders from these parties.

That gives him some hope to cling to.

‘It’s not sufficient’

Hasan arrived in Bangladesh with his family when he was 10 years old in 2017, with other Rohingya refugees.

The massacre of the Rohingya in Myanmar – where the community’s members are not even considered citizens – is currently being investigated by the International Court of Justice as a possible genocide. Meanwhile, in November 2024, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Myanmar’s military chief, Min Aung Hlaing, accusing him of committing crimes against the Rohingya in 2017.

Since then, Bangladesh has been home to the biggest chunk of Rohingya refugees globally.

But Nay San Lwin, a diaspora leader of the Rohingya and a co-chair of the Arakan Rohingya National Council (ARNC), said that while the community was grateful to Bangladesh’s government and people, the country’s policy of “non-integration” of the Rohingya meant that they remained on the peripheries of society. The camps are fenced with barbed wire, and Rohingya children can’t access the formal education system of Bangladesh, for instance.

“The elected government in February should focus on improving living conditions, access to education, healthcare, livelihoods, and fostering greater engagement between refugees and host communities,” he said.

That’s easier said than done, though. The Rohingya camps have run with financial support from the United Nations and global aid agencies – and funding cuts in recent years have hobbled the already limited services available to residents.

“The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate due to insecurity, funding cuts, lack of education, and uncertainty about the future,” said Sayed Ullah, president of the United Council of the Rohingya, a community organisation.

Hafez Ahmed, a 64-year-old shopkeeper in the camp, said medical facilities there were getting worse. “We only got the basic medicines they provide in the hospital. If any critical illness is detected, hospitals advise us to seek treatment at private hospitals, but we don’t have the money,” he told Al Jazeera. “Rations are getting less; it’s not sufficient.”

And for young Rohingya like the teenage teacher Hasan, life in the camp is one of dashed dreams.

“Living camp life is a trauma; camp life is like prison life,” he said.  “I wanted to be a world-class teacher who contributes to world education, but what can I say to myself, a fateless one?”

Growing frustrations with life in Bangladesh have led more and more Rohingya refugees to try to repeat the perilous journeys they once took to get to the country – to go elsewhere this time.

In a joint statement issued in November, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) said that in 2025, more than 5,300 Rohingya refugees embarked on dangerous maritime journeys. Many left Myanmar, but others were also trying to flee Bangladesh. In all, more than 600 are missing or have been killed.

Bibi Khadija, 23, is among those who tried to leave the refugee camps in Bangladesh. In November, she said, she tried “to go to Malaysia in search of a better life”. But after a human trafficker detained her and her three-year-old son, she escaped with the child. As she tried to make her way back to the camp, she asked locals in a market for help. Instead, she said, they “beat” her. “You are the Rohingya; you always create problems for us,” she recalled the mob telling her. Eventually, another local – a stranger – gave her some money to help her get back home.

Khadija’s story isn’t unique: The Rohingya in Bangladesh today sit at the intersection of a complex narrative, say experts – both treated as victims of a possible genocide, and held responsible for crime and strained social services.

As the country looks for a new start with the upcoming election, many – among both the Rohingya and Bangladeshis concerned about their presence in the nation – are hoping for a new deal for the community.

‘Matter of utmost priority’

In August 2024, then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India, seeking exile after a major student-led uprising. She has now been sentenced, in absentia, to death for a brutal crackdown by her security forces against protesters, in which more than 1,400 people were killed.

Since her ouster, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has led an interim administration. Before the February 12 elections that will determine Bangladesh’s next government, the BNP and the Jamaat – the two main forces, with Hasina’s Awami League banned – have both spoken of the Rohingya crisis.

“Rohingya repatriation is a matter of utmost priority for the BNP,” party leader Israfil Khosru told Al Jazeera. Khosru is a special assistant to BNP chairperson Tarique Rahman’s Foreign Advisory Committee. In 1992, during the first term of Rahman’s mother, Khaleda Zia, as the country’s prime minister, Bangladesh successfully repatriated Rohingya refugees to Myanmar. “We believe in safe and dignified repatriation of the Rohingyas. Their right to citizenship [in Myanmar] must be ensured.”

The Jamaat, meanwhile, has launched a platform to seek feedback on potential solutions to the Rohingya crisis from Bangladeshis and the diaspora. “We received a significant number of policy proposals from the people to solve the Rohingya crisis. We will examine those,” Jamaat’s assistant secretary, Ahsanul Mahboob Zubair, said.

“Solving the Rohingya issue is one of our party’s top priorities, to return them to their homeland, Myanmar, with security and dignity,” he added. He said that while previous Bangladeshi governments have focused on seeking a resolution through the UN, “China, India, and other essential stakeholders should play an effective role,” too.

But Tanvir Habib, assistant professor in international relations at Dhaka University, said the Rohingya issue was not a major factor in the election campaign.

“The next government would need to engage global and regional stakeholders to ensure that support continues to reach this vulnerable community,” he said.

Thomas Kean, senior consultant on Bangladesh and Myanmar for the International Crisis Group, said Rohingya refugees would “welcome improvements to their living conditions in the camps” under whichever party wins the election.

But the refugees see “their stay in Bangladesh as temporary, so the focus remains repatriation”.

John Quinley, director at the human rights nonprofit Fortify Rights, cautioned that Bangladeshi parties need to go beyond using “the Rohingya as a political tool during election campaigns”.

“Whoever comes to power in Bangladesh must outline a comprehensive Rohingya strategy that goes beyond repatriation. Repatriation cannot be the sole political agenda for Bangladeshi leaders, as it is not possible at this time,” he argued. “The Myanmar junta continues to commit genocide against the Rohingya.”

Not everyone is as sympathetic to the Rohingya refugees.

Outside the camp in Cox’s Bazar, Mahabub Alam, a 29-year-old student and a resident of Ukhia, described the Rohingya as a “burden”.

“Rohingya are occupying our local labour market at a lower day wage rate, and the job market is decreasing. So the Rohingya issue is a big problem for us,” Alam said.

Alam also blamed the Rohingya in Cox’s Bazar for local crime, including human trafficking.

While Rohingya leaders push back against the community being characterised as responsible for crime and violence in parts of Bangladesh, those concerns extend beyond locals in Cox’s Bazar.

“People are getting impatient with the lingering Rohingya issue in Bangladesh,” Major General Shahidul Haque, a former diplomat and Bangladeshi defence attache to Myanmar, told Al Jazeera. “It is impacting our law and order situation and our national security. I have attended seminars this week where everybody is worried and wants this solved. They are expecting the  next government to solve the issue.”

What that solution will look like is unclear.

But back in the camp in Cox’s Bazar, Ahmed, the Rohingya shopkeeper, knows what he wants from the next government in Bangladesh: Repatriation with rights, to Myanmar.

“I want to die in my homeland,” the sexagenarian said. “I want to return to my home.”